"13th five year plan" wind power capacity expansion and absorption will become a "play"

With another "Five-Year Plan" coming out, the renewable energy industry represented by wind power and photovoltaic industry will usher in the key node of transformation and upgrading. According to the industry analysis, unlike the "12th Five Year Plan" which mainly promotes large-scale development, wind power and photovoltaic during the "13th five year plan" period will meet the planning goal of further increasing, and the task of solving the bottleneck of consumption and improving energy efficiency is becoming more urgent.

In the past five years, China's wind power and photovoltaic industry has ushered in a high-speed development period. In the 12th Five Year Plan, 100 million wind power and 35 million kilowatts of solar energy have been installed ahead of schedule or over fulfilled. According to the data, by the end of March 2015, the cumulative grid connected capacity of wind power across the country has reached 101.07 million kilowatts, and the "12th Five Year Plan" target of total installed capacity has been completed nine months in advance.

Zhu Ming, deputy director of the new energy and renewable energy department of the national energy administration, said recently that the cumulative scale of wind power grid connection by the end of the year is expected to reach 120 million kilowatts. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the report card of photovoltaic industry was also outstanding. By the end of June 2015, it had broken through the goal of installation planning raised several times half a year in advance.

Compared with the actual high-speed development of the wind and light industry, the 13th five year plan blue print of "grid connected wind power installed capacity reaches 200 million kilowatts in 2020, and solar power installed capacity reaches 100 million kilowatts in 2020" proposed in the national climate change plan (2014-2020) issued by the national development and Reform Commission in November 2014 is slightly conservative.

It is generally believed that in the final "13th five year plan" industry plan, "wind and light" installation target will be raised. At several industry forums held recently, Dong Xiufen, director of the new energy department of the new energy and renewable energy department of the national energy administration, revealed that the target of photovoltaic installation in the 13th five year plan will reach about 150 million kilowatts. Li Peng, deputy director of the new energy department of the national energy administration, also said that the growth of wind power installed capacity during the 13th Five Year Plan period "will certainly guarantee an annual market increase of no less than that during the 12th Five Year Plan period" (the newly increased installed capacity in 2014 is 1981 million kilowatts), while the industry estimated that the wind power installed capacity target is expected to be raised to 250-280 million kilowatts in 2020.

At the same time, many industry insiders and experts are also reminding that compared with the "12th Five Year Plan" period, which mainly promotes large-scale development, the important tasks of the "13th five year plan" of renewable energy will be changed. In addition to planning objectives and layout, efficiency improvement will be more important. Ren Dongming, deputy director of the renewable energy development center of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, recently said that "during the 13th five year plan, the development of renewable energy will enter a new stage of both quantity and quality. On the one hand, we should continue to promote the scale and achieve the national non fossil energy growth goal; on the other hand, we should improve the quality and efficiency.".

Specific to the 13th five year plan for wind power and photovoltaic, it is better to pay more attention to the consumption and utilization efficiency of power generation than to focus on the goal of installation planning. At present, the consumption problem caused by the limited demand for electricity and the difficulty of power transmission has become a bottleneck restricting the healthy development of the industry.

During the 12th Five Year Plan period, although the national policy is inclined to clean energy, the phenomenon of "abandoning wind and light" is still frequent in China. In 2012, when the wind abandonment was the most serious, it reached 17%. Although the wind abandonment rate has gradually decreased since then, it rebounded to 15.2% in the first half of 2015. Similarly, "light abandonment" has always been a chronic disease that weakens the actual level of photovoltaic power generation. According to the data from the national energy administration, from January to June this year, China's photovoltaic power abandonment is about 1.8 billion kwh, accounting for nearly 10% of the photovoltaic power generation, including 28% in Gansu Province and 19% in Xinjiang.

At the same time, during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, China's GDP growth slowed down year by year, and the economic growth entered a new normal. The power demand of the whole society also bid farewell to the era of high-speed growth. It is predicted that China's electricity demand in the 13th five year plan will enter a period of medium speed growth, with an average annual growth of only about 4%. However, the supply of fossil energy and renewable energy is expanding, and the competition for consumption space is intensifying, resulting in the phenomenon of "energy abandonment", especially the chronic disease of "electricity abandonment" which is hard to overcome for a long time in the "wind and light" industry.

Obviously, if the problem of "abandoning light and electricity" can not be effectively solved during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the increase of installed capacity will have real significance for the development of the whole industry. As Li Peng said, "the installed capacity can grow very fast, but the power generation will not grow, which is actually equivalent to a waste of investment.". How to effectively accept, transmit and utilize the new clean energy to generate electricity, make the wind and light installed capacity effectively change into the available electric energy, and realize the transformation of renewable energy from the supplementary energy to the alternative energy will be the biggest proposition that the industrial development places on the 13th five year plan.

"Promoting the consumption of renewable energy is now one of the core contents of the No. 9 document of the electricity reform. However, how to thoroughly implement the requirements of No.9 document, further improve and optimize the operation mode of the existing power system through promoting the reform of the power system, make the operation of the power grid more flexible, effectively guarantee the priority of renewable energy power on-line and full purchase, and adapt to the requirements of the large-scale development of renewable energy, may be a problem that needs in-depth study " At the 2015 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference held on the 14th, the key to solve the problem of renewable energy supply and consumption was pointed out. Some insiders also pointed out that during the 13th Five Year Plan period, if we want to fundamentally solve the problem of wind power, photovoltaic and other renewable energy consumption,